The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I write about mostly older horses running routes over grass, and from that I assemble exacta bets. I've been a handicapper since the mid 1980's and a horse racing blogger since 2008.
I didn't think Ethical Diamond had a chance.
Nothing here screams it: a Maiden at start of 5 YO campaign.His jockey jumped to 2X Turf Winner Rebel's Romance.
Nothing here screams winner: Most of his $521K in earnings from 2025 after a brutal 2024 (someone believed in him!). The race chart implies pressing and not deep closer. Only 1/5 of his earnings from this distance.
Breeders' Cup Turf G1: 1 1/2 Miles for 3 YO and Up
14 September 2025; Curragh; Irish Leger G1;
Amiloc (GB) Place finish for 3 YO gelding. 6 of 6 Lifetime Exacta
27 September 2025; Aqueduct; Turf Classic G1;
El Cordobes (Ire) (Show 3 3/4 back), Rebel Red (GB) (5th 7 3/4 back), Rebel's Romance (Ire) (Win 3 1/2 in front ), Redistricting (GB) (Place 3 1/2 back)
23 August 2025; York (GB); Ebor Handicap Stakes Class 2;
Ethical Diamond (Ire) (Win by 2 1/2)
27 September 2025; Santa Anita; John Henry Turf Championship G1;
Gold Phoenix (Ire) (Win by 1 1/4 in front)
7 September 2025; Baden-Baden (Ger); Grosser Preis von Baden G1;
Goliath (Ger) (Win by 1 1/4 lengths)
4 October 2025; Aqueduct; Jockey Club Derby Invitational G2;
Hill Road (Show 2 1/2 lengths back)
5 October 2025; Longchamp (Fr); Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe G1;
Minnie Hauk (Ire) (Place by a head)
4 October 2025; Longchamp (Fr); Prix Dollar G2;
Rashabar (Ire) (4th- 4 lengths back- (French Only Video-Green, Blue Sleeves, Green Dots on White #9 horse)
4 October 2025; Woodbine; Canadian International G1;
Silawi (Ire) (Win by a nose), Tawny Port (Place by a nose)
30 August 2025; Kentucky Downs; Nashville Derby G3
Wimbledon Hawkeye (GB) (Win by a head), Hill Road (Show 3 3/4 lengths back)
The Breeders Cup Turf G1: 1 1/2 Miles on the Del Mar Turf Course, for 3 YOs and Up
What I said Prerace:
I was going to call this an interesting field, and then I thought about it, and if you removed Minnie Hauk (Ire) and Rebel's Romance (Ire) from the field, then it would be a very interesting AmericanGrade 1 turf race. Including them makes this a top heavy race with a fairly mediocre bottom of the field, especially at the outside posts. The filly, Minnie Hauk (Ire), as morning line favorite at 8-5 I didn't think was appropriate. Yes she carries 7 less pounds than Rebel's Romance but it's her 8th start, the furthest she's traveled before coming to Del Mar was Ireland to France, a flight too short to pass out complimentary beverages. At 3 YO, if this filly wins it will be shocking and historic. Yes she can, I don't think it will happen. But it's not exactly like Rebel's Romance winning will provide value. The two of them combined for 51.5% of the adjusted Morning Line and 53.6% of Turk's Fair Odds. I think we will have to get creative with the Betting Structure to realize value.
1. Have Rebel's Romance (Ire) or Minnie Hauk (Ire) first with a few logical late runners in Place.
2. Swing for the Fence: Put a bunch of Horses (my non-RED) in Win Spot and put both Minnie Hauk and Rebel's Romance in Place Spot.
I priced out both at $24 Dollar Options:
$2 Exacta: 1-8 OVER 2-10-4-3-9-6 for $24
OR
$2 Exacta 2-10-4-3-9-6 OVER 1-8
I'm not wasting money on the most logical, a 1-8 Boxed finish.
Exacta History for 2024-2025
Tomlinson Analysis for Turf and Distance:
The Race Replay
Ethical Diamond's run in the visualization below is just as impressive as what my eyes saw. Paying $282 on a $2 exacta with 2-1 Rebel's Romance, it showed the strategy I had of putting the favorites in Place and a bunch of long shots in Win Spot was sound, I just picked the wrong long shot. Honestly, I didn't see this coming and sometimes you can complete the post mortem and come away with no other lesson except you can't win them all!
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Racing and Exacta Betting. "Specialize" is not how I feel this week, as I had Ethical Diamond at something like 3% chance to win the Breeders' Cup Turf. I'd love to tell you how I thought highly of him and he was my wise guy pick, yada, yada, yada, but no. I don't think I would have picked that horse, considering the field he was in, to finish in my exacta unless I boxed the whole field. Beware the handicapper and bet constructor who can't admit he was wrong. I'm going to diagnose both my handicap, pre race analysis and the video in a longer post tomorrow, just because I like pain and I also like to try to learn. The only sign was improving Timeforms, but in that field, at his post draw, I still don't see it. Anyways, I'll stop grumbling.
Turf racing is over for the year. Yes I know there are some races, but for all legitimate purposes, it's done. When you like turf racing, and you like older horses, this time of the year is slow and slim pickings, but the good people at The Thorofan asked me (they didn't read my Breeders' Cup debacle....shhh, or they won't invite me again) handicap the River City at Churchill Downs, so that is the mission.
It's not a terrible field. This time of year you get older horses possibly taking one last run before retirement or 4 YOs who are building on their improvements, with very little high end class, or graded stakes wins, to show for it.
Conversely, not a lot of video I think worth looking at for this race. Interestingly, so much of this field is early speed, and not a lot of success in the field at the distance, with only five (5) 1 and 1/8 Mile wins combined.
Before I go to far, I'd be tone death to not mention that Louisville is having a terrible week following the airplane crash that left at least 13 dead, with 9 or more missing. Say a prayer for the area as they continue to heal and bury the dead. Prayer, regardless of your beliefs, helps, and never lose sight of the fact that as humans, we are all interconnected.
The weather should be mostly dry after some rain on Friday. Keep an eye on turf conditions, as this is the last race on the card tomorrow at almost 6 PM and two other races, non graded stakes, are on the card. Today is listed as firm with rail at 36 feet, it's max position.
Let's Get After This:
Exacta History: Exacta In The Money (ITM) > 60% in BOLD
Visualization of Early and Late US Timeform Pace: Three true late speed, a few tactical, albeit slow mid runners and a bunch of very early speed.
I set Par for this race as 75 Early and 105 Late
Tomlinson Number Analysis with Focus on Distance
8 Nov 2025 CD; The River City Handicap G3; 1 1/8 Miles on Turf
So, What to do with all that? If I'm being honest, I think I'm burned out on handicapping this year because I'm without a very strong opinion. Everyone can sometimes use a break, and post Breeders' Cup I generally shut it down. It doesn't help I uked all over myself in my annual Super Bowl, The Breeders' Cup Turf (can you tell I'm gripping?).
I'm going to value the late speed of Chasing the Crown/6: Loves Churchill, 6 for 6 in the exacta. Has a win 1/2 furlong shorter so I'm not holding the distance against him but its a wildcard he has to overcome. Not the best horse in the field, not the best trainer/jock combo, but I like all of it added together. My chalk.
I like Taking Candy/12 more than others, and I have the 5 YO son of Twirling Candy for Lael Stables as a win contender I like his early tactical speed and decent late turn of foot. Place in G2 two back and a G3 win four back.
I have a crowded group just below these two that I think are all legitimate exacta contenders.
Corruption/8 is an improving 4 YO who has just been building all 2025 after entering the year as a maiden. Acquitted himself well in 4th in The Manhattan in the deep G1 waters, same in the Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs.
Lagynos/9 doesn't win much, 3 wins in last 18 but 9 Place and Show in that time frame. $1.7 MM lifetime winner, won the $500K Tapit at Kentucky Downs by 5 lengths and ran back in Place 9 days later in a grade 3. Off since September 6, a break Asmussen wins 16% of the time on 485 tries. Dettori is up, winless in 5 CD starts over past year.
Epic Ride/2 is a $1.9 MM career winner at 4 YO and a 2024 Kentucky Derby entrant before going to turf in June of 2025. 1 turf win in 4 tries and today the longest stretch out beyond 8 furlongs since the Kentucky Derby. Big early speed. Quality horse, no doubt. More questions for me than answers.
Encino/4 is a Brad Cox, gaudy stats Brad,(24% Graded Stakes Winner, 22% Turf, 27% Synth to Turf, 28% Routes, 26% winner at CD with I. Ortiz, Up)with another improving 4 YO making only his 3rd turf start. First time at CD, First time at distance on turf, very classy son of Nyquist for Godolphin. More questions than answers as well.
Mercante/7 had a very good start to season in 2025, winning 3 of first 5 races before going backward a bit. Oddly placed as 60-1 shot at Keeneland in Turf Mile last month, cutting back 4 furlongs from Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs. Has a Place Finish/101 Beyer at this track and distance in May in a Grade 1 and followed that up with a G3 with 1/2 furlong shorter at CD. Not sure what to make of him.
If I boxed 6-12-8-9-4-2 (Skipping Mercante) for $2, that's a $60 bet. Too pricy and lousy risk/reward. This improves somewhat dropping the 4-2 from Win Position, a $2 bet for $24. That's my base bet.
If you are playing after the Breeders' Cup, I tip my hat to you, a real horseplayer.
Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction.
It seems like ages ago, but this blog first handicapped a Breeders' Cup in Santa Anita in 2008. The blog itself was conceived while watching the 2007 Breeders' Cup in rainy Monmouth Park, rest in peace George Washington. It was a different time in the world, as Twitter was just taking hold and people actually read, and gasp, commented on, long form blogs. Blogs are seeing a resurgence with sites like Substack, but it was a heady time in horse racing when bloggers were aplenty, covering the sport from every point of view possible.
I never kidded myself, I'm not a turf writer, just a guy who has been handicapping for the better part of 40 years, a horse racing fan since the mid 1970's and a decent analytical brain (shout out US Navy Nuclear Power Program and 30 years in business culminating in becoming a CEO-shout out to perseverance, shout out to luck, shout out to poor work-life balance.) I digress
As I handicapper, I work all year for this upcoming weekend. My choice of handicaps isn't random, I'm progressing either through a single meet, or progressing through a stakes calendar for this weekend. All the Graded Stakes handicapped invests me into these horses, and sets me up to be my sharpest as a player when the handle is big and money is to be made. Earlier this week I posted a blog entry with all the video on these runners, I wont repeat that, but you can find it here.
Let's get After it:
The Breeders Cup Turf G1: 1 1/2 Miles on the Del Mar Turf Course, for 3 YOs and Up
I was going to call this an interesting field, and then I thought about it, and if you removed Minnie Hauk (Ire) and Rebel's Romance (Ire) from the field, then it would be a very interesting AmericanGrade 1 turf race. Including them makes this a top heavy race with a fairly mediocre bottom of the field, especially at the outside posts. The filly, Minnie Hauk (Ire), as morning line favorite at 8-5 I didn't think was appropriate. Yes she carries 7 less pounds than Rebel's Romance but it's her 8th start, the furthest she's traveled before coming to Del Mar was Ireland to France, a flight too short to pass out complimentary beverages. At 3 YO, if this filly wins it will be shocking and historic. Yes she can, I don't think it will happen. But it's not exactly like Rebel's Romance winning will provide value. The two of them combined for 51.5% of the adjusted Morning Line and 53.6% of Turk's Fair Odds. I think we will have to get creative with the Betting Structure to realize value.
1. Have Rebel's Romance (Ire) or Minnie Hauk (Ire) first with a few logical late runners in Place.
2. Swing for the Fence: Put a bunch of Horses (my non-RED) in Win Spot and put both Minnie Hauk and Rebel's Romance in Place Spot.
I priced out both at $24 Dollar Options:
$2 Exacta: 1-8 OVER 2-10-4-3-9-6 for $24
OR
$2 Exacta 2-10-4-3-9-6 OVER 1-8
I'm not wasting money on the most logical, a 1-8 Boxed finish.
Happy Breeders Cup Week! As a Turf Handicapper, my Super Bowl(s) are all on Saturday:
Race 8 Post Time 5:41 ET: Breeders' Cup Turf G1 at 1 1/2 miles
Race 10 Post Time 7:05 ET: Breeders' Cup Mile G1
Race 12: Post Time 8:25 ET: Breeders' Cup F&M Turf G1 at 1 3/8 miles
When you focus on such a niche like Turf Racing, and specifically high end Grade 1 and 2 Turf racing, you get a familiarity with the athletes that really makes handicapping much easier. The wild card of course is the foreign runners that I've watched little of, as well as current form of the runners who I loved in the summer but are they still the same horse months later? That's why we do this, the mental challenge of handicapping is something that I thoroughly enjoy. I've been getting inundated with ads in my social media feeds for AI assisted handicapping. I understand wanting to get an edge, but this is so lame. If you need to resort to AI picking winners you might as well just go to the VFW, get loaded up on Old Milwaukee, and do pull tabs all night. Horse Race Handicapping is for intelligent people to excel, and while the bar keeps getting lowered, we don't have to lower our personal standards. Say no to AI assisted handicapping. OK, rant over.
Lets Get after It.
Breeders' Cup Turf G1: 1 1/2 Miles for 3 YO and Up
When I am starting my homework I try not to get lost in the data at first and just take in as much last race video as possible:
14 September 2025; Curragh; Irish Leger G1;
Amiloc (GB) Place finish for 3 YO gelding. 6 of 6 Lifetime Exacta
27 September 2025; Aqueduct; Turf Classic G1;
El Cordobes (Ire) (Show 3 3/4 back), Rebel Red (GB) (5th 7 3/4 back), Rebel's Romance (Ire) (Win 3 1/2 in front ), Redistricting (GB) (Place 3 1/2 back)
23 August 2025; York (GB); Ebor Handicap Stakes Class 2;
Ethical Diamond (Ire) (Win by 2 1/2)
27 September 2025; Santa Anita; John Henry Turf Championship G1;
Gold Phoenix (Ire) (Win by 1 1/4 in front)
7 September 2025; Baden-Baden (Ger); Grosser Preis von Baden G1;
Goliath (Ger) (Win by 1 1/4 lengths)
4 October 2025; Aqueduct; Jockey Club Derby Invitational G2;
Hill Road (Show 2 1/2 lengths back)
5 October 2025; Longchamp (Fr); Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe G1;
Minnie Hauk (Ire) (Place by a head)
4 October 2025; Longchamp (Fr); Prix Dollar G2;
Rashabar (Ire) (4th- 4 lengths back- (French Only Video-Green, Blue Sleeves, Green Dots on White #9 horse)
4 October 2025; Woodbine; Canadian International G1;
Silawi (Ire) (Win by a nose), Tawny Port (Place by a nose)
30 August 2025; Kentucky Downs; Nashville Derby G3
Wimbledon Hawkeye (GB) (Win by a head), Hill Road (Show 3 3/4 lengths back)
That is most recent video on all of the possible field. There is plenty to digest there. We'll be back tomorrow to dive in further.
Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, where I specialize in turf race handicapping and exacta bet constructions. Yesterday we handicapped the John Henry Turf Championship G2 at Santa Anita, and I discussed, but did not handicap, The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1 at Aqueduct (no, I won't pretend that it's Belmont).
Breeders' Cup is 33 days from now, 5 weeks from last Friday. After next weekend, and with very few exceptions after that, all the preps for Breeders' Cup will be done and I will turn my attention to handicapping, beginning with as much video as I can lay my hands on for the last 2-3 races for each horse I'm focused on. I'm not really a Triple Crown fella, I like data, and these turf race contestants at the Breeders' Cup come with loads of data and video. Heaven for a handicapping nerd such as I.
The John Henry was no great surprise. My base handicap had Gold Phoenix as an A+ and odds on favorite while I had Stay Hot as Place horse, an A rating and second best odds. They both went off at $1.50- 1 odds with Stay Hot considered the incremental chalk. My bet construction was singled on Mondego ($6.20-1) finally figuring it out and using his incredible turn of foot tactically to win a race. It didn't happen and may never happen.
27 September 2025; John Henry Turf Championship G2; DMR; 1 1/4 Miles on firm turf.
Race Chart:
Horse Name
PP
1/4
1/2
3/4
1M
STR
FIN
Gold Phoenix (IRE)
7
7
7
7
61
31
11 ¼
Stay Hot
6
5hd
62
6½
7
7
2nk
Spycatcher
3
22
21 ½
21 ½
21
1½
31
Mondego (GB)
5
61 ½
5½
52
5½
4hd
41 ¾
Balladeer
2
12 ½
14
14 ½
12
2hd
51 ¼
Dicey Mo Chara (GB)
4
42
3½
31 ½
4½
6½
6¾
Rastaman Vibe
1
31
42
41 ½
3hd
5hd
7
Race Chart Visualization:
Joe Hirsch also went as expected. Rebel's Romance (Ire) is a beast, going off at $0.64-1 with Redistricting getting longest odds you can expect him to get, $5.31 -1.
27 September 2025; Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1; 1 1/4 Miles on Firm Turf.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in exactly the kind of race I'm handicapping today, the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Championship at Santa Anita, competed by mostly hard knocking veterans of the scene. This is the Turk's favorite time of the year as a horse player, getting ready for final prep races for Breeders' Cup over the next two weekends and then, what turns into a video review of the year in horse racing, my prep for Breeders' Cup, which will be extensive this year, as I'm finally able to have a bit of work-life balance again and feel calm enough to dedicate the time I use to for that homework assignment.
I looked at the marathon distance Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1 run at Belmont at Big A (Temu Belmont), and while the purse was bigger, the class of horse was greater (magnificent Redistricting, $14M Rebel's Romance and Far Bridge), I'm going to just enjoy that one from a fans perspective as the field is a bit small.
Let's get right into it!
2 Wins.
23 Starts.
The number of winners at the distance and the combined starts at the distance. The field is a mixed bag with the real class and proven graded stakes competitors Stay Hot and Gold Phoenix (Ire).
30 August 2025; The Del Mar Handicap G2; 1 3/8 Miles on firm turf. Gold Phoenix won his fourth straight and The Turk blogged it here.
The two prime win candidates will be challenged by some unheralded horses that are trying to break into contender territory from mediocre.
Rastaman Vibe: cutting back 1f off his very game OC$50K win at Del Mar 20 days ago. Trainer Knapp claimed him on that day and entered the 4 YO here. 13 SA Turf Starts, no exacta finishes. Woof.
Mondego (GB): Why do we watch video? Watch the Del Mar Handicap above and watch Mondego (GB) at the top of the stretch go wide outside and watch his closing kicks: powerful, long strides. Less traffic, slightly less early speed pressure, you can't watch him and not think he's very dangerous, especially Conditioner McCarthy and Kimura, Up, get him into the right place.
Exacta History: Life, Turf, Distance, Track
Tomlinson Analysis
Exacta Comparison/Class
Timeform Early and Late US Pace
What do we do with all of this?
Santa Anita Race 6: The John Henry Turf Championshi>p G2; 1 1/4 Miles on Firm Turf
I'm not sure I'm an investor in this one, but if I do, I'm looking for pure value: $2 Exacta, 5 OVER 1-6-7 for $6 Bucks.
Have fun friends, Turk Out!
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I (usually) handicap Turf Racing and build Exacta Bets. When you start to get to this time of the year, the number of good Graded Stake Turf races starts to dwindle. The next few weekends, but especially Saturday September 27 and Saturday October 4 are really the last few big prep weekends prior to Breeders' Cup. When I started thinking about what I wanted to blog this weekend, I had the Ginger Punch here at GP, a few races at Aqueduct and JRA, but nothing excited me too much. We do, however, have a Breeders' Cup win and You're in dirt sprint at Gulfstream, The Princess Rooney Grade 3. As I was handicapping and watching video, I forgot how fast these sprints are run at, and look no further than the opening 1/4 mile in The Sheer Drama below at :21.7 Anyways, this is a horse racing blog, I'm a Turf, Dirt and Synth handicapper, so let's get it on!
16 August 2025; GP; The Sheer Drama $75K; 7f on fast dirt
22 June 2025; GP; The Musical Romance $75K; 6 1/2 F on good dirt.
Haulin Ice and Vincey Girl, wow. Contrasting styles, complimentary combatants.
9 August 2025; Cnl; The Tyson Gilpin $103K; 7f on fast dirt
Reputation, at, 3 YO, is $450,000 Bolt 'd Oro filly who has won 3 of 4 races in 2025, including the Tyson Gilpin by 6 lengths. Deeper waters today.
22 August 2025; CT; The Pink Ribbon $250K; 7f Fast Dirt.
Another beast, Mystic Lake. only four horses, slow fractions, glorified workout.
21 June 2025; CD; The Chicago Handicap G2; 7f on Fast Dirt
Claret Beret with a long sustained drive up the straight, including a very game final 1/16, just beaten as 10-1. yes, this race is missing Vahva.
What to do with this all?
Mystic Lake was entered at PRX for today as well. I find it incredibly frustrating that they don't scratch sooner when its known the horse will be thousands of miles away at a different track on the same day. Whatever!
I'm just looking for value here and Ultimate Authority has an incredible closing kick. I'm looking for her to stay close long enough to unleash it. It will be a tall order as Claret Beret and Haulin Ice can sustain over 7f, while tactical Vincey Girl and Reputation will be ether as well.
3 OVER 1-2-5-8, a $2 exacta for $8.
The tracks should be Fast. You can find scratches, changes and track condition here.
