Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I focus on turf runners and exacta betting.
Know Thy Self! I should know to avoid 3 YOs. My ROI tells me to avoid them, but I do like getting a feel for the next crop of up and comers. Why do I avoid 3 YO's? So much uncertainty and so little actual performance that can be quantified.
Velocity. I noted the last race at Dmr, a 1 1/16 that she rallied off of to finish late. I also noted the 75 Beyer, the fact it was her fourth start, her only graded stakes start, a G3, she faltered at 6.5f, I noted the distance Tomlinson was 3rd best, and her post position of 3 wins quite a bit of turf races at this distance since 2022 (2nd most behind Post 4). I thought she had a legitimate chance to finish top 3, but win a Grade 1. Didn't see that coming BUT the breadcrumbs were there for those with better eyes. Hard to dislike the 35-1 odds on a high class, last time winner at Dmr.
Things we got right? Didn't believe Thought Process deserved being bet down that low and also didn't believe a front runner could run on an extra 660 feet against this field. Got that right.
Believed in Lush Lips (GB). Again shows the frivolity of looking at Morning Lines, as the betting public got all the dogs right and bet Lush Lips down hard. 9th start for the shipper who had at least a track record of graded stakes competitiveness, losing twice to the same day Saratoga Alabama G1 winner, Nitrogen. Dirt and Turf Graded Stakes winner Nitrogen is impressive BTW. I have to think savvy gamblers looked at that Alabama result 3 hours earlier and rethought Lush Lips (GB).
My gamble was on Firenze Flavor. Too far back and maybe needs more distance. Too big a stretch for me.
It's ok not to win. Learn something from every race and every handicap. Patterns repeat, look for them. I've been doing this a very long time and I'm still learning.
Also, what a great ride Jock R. Gonzalez for Trainer M. McCarthy. he saved ground the whole way and when the rail opened, he threaded a needle and took it.
16 August 2025; Del Mar Oaks G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I usually specialize in handicapping older horses running over a route of grass, with which I turn into exacta bets. Simple premise. Today I'm handicapping the Del Mar Oaks, and while only 3 YOs, I don like to get some looks at the next up and comers. My issue with the younger horses is they lack data. The more information as a handicapper you have, the better. With younger horses I modify my key angles slightly and I focus on class, wins at the distance, wins at the track, trainer intentions. 27 wins combined for the 11 starters. 3 Graded Stakes Wins. Best late speed is Edge of Mali (IRE) at 107 followed by Firenze Flavor at 102. Best early speed is Thought Process at 116 and the next closest is Slick (Ire) at 97. Slick (Ire) and Lush Lips have the best Turf Tomlinson's in mid 380's while Striver is best Distance Tomlinson at 409.
Let's take a look at Thought Process and her dominant win in the one mile San Clemente. Don't underestimate the power of the extra 660 feet today, but no one was catching her on this day.
19 July 2025: Dmr; The San Clemente G2; 1 Mile over Firm Turf
Casalu gave good chase running well past his Turf and Distance Tomlinson's. Tomlison's have thier place, especially in these younger horses.
Tomlinson Numbers were created by pedigree experts Leon Rasmussen and Leon Tomlinson in the 1970s and 1980s. They were designed to give horseplayers a quick numerical measure of how a horse’s breeding suggests it will perform under certain racing conditions such as turf, dirt, distance, or wet tracks.
The numbers are calculated from pedigree data. They look at how successful a horse’s ancestors—particularly the sire and dam—have been under a given condition. This produces a three-digit figure, where higher numbers mean the pedigree shows more strength for that surface or distance. For example, a turf Tomlinson of 380 or higher suggests strong turf ability in the pedigree, while a 250 would suggest little turf influence.
The Daily Racing Form began including Tomlinson Numbers in Past Performances in 1991. They quickly became popular with bettors because they help answer unknown questions, such as whether a horse trying turf for the first time might be bred for it, or whether a sprinter stretching out in distance may have the stamina in its bloodlines. They are especially useful for first-time starters, surface switches, and stretch-outs.
There are limits to Tomlinson Numbers. They do not measure actual ability, fitness, or class—only what the pedigree suggests. A horse with a high Tomlinson may still run poorly, and a horse with a low one may still succeed if its individual talent or training outweighs its bloodlines.
Remember what we are trying to do here, two separate tasks:
Handicap (place in order) who should win.
Exacta Bet: Who can beat my top win candidate who might finish in second.
That's how I look at the races. I'm not a fan boy (although I do love the horses and I have my favorites) but I am a degenerate (not really) gambler who is trying to beat the track with highly slanted odds in the house's direction. You don't do that betting chalk. You also don't do that when you don't think anyone can beat the chalk. I don't see Thought Process as unbeatable, it's her 8th start, she's won 5 , 3 of 4 at Del Mar, 5 of 6 on Turf, bullet work at 5f. That's impressive, but we want to beat her. The Tomlinson's coupled with other information from race charts and past performances, plus video, informs me of who might.
Dmr; The Del Mar Oaks G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf
Thought Process, shouldn't be pressed to hard early, and she should bein the lead without too much effort. Can she hold on? 660 feet. 1 extra furlong. I'm looking at the group of Firenze Flavor, Casalu, Lush Lips (GB) and Will Then to challenge early and late. I like the two, Firenze Flavor and Casalu to win with Thought Process, Lush Lips or Will Then to Place. 8/9 OVER 8/9/10/5/7 a $2 Bet for $16.
I said it, I think they will catch Thought Process. Am I convinced, not really, but that's my angle. If you believe in the horse, then switch gears and add some of the longer odd deep closers to the place position, single Thought Process OVER Firenze Flavor and Will Then, a $2 Exacta for $4. Not a bad play.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog. Remember, this is a no brag zone, but it's not bragging to say I've been fire over the grass with the exacta's, taking down favorites left and right. My no favorite Exacta Bet cost $18 but paid $88. These are the bets that drive ROI for the horseplayer.
Again, another race with a better than even money favorite fell to Show. 60% of the time the favorites lose. It's an angle I love to exploit. I do everything in my power to avoid bias in my handicapping and betting. The pretty girls on FanDuel TV can be compelling, the ex-Jock can be compelling, but its all bias. I find I'm more successful not knowing if the horse is named after someone who's sick or died, or a feel good news item about the connections. I'm human and I love a good human interest story (I cried a lot about the story behind Cody's Wish- but I still bet against him!) just not if it brings bias to me. Anyways, looking at a wide sample size we ask ChatGPT how often the favorite Wins-Places or Shows.
For turf racing only in the U.S., the numbers for post-time favorites shift slightly lower than Dirt because:
Turf races often have larger fields and more competitive entries than dirt races.
Pace dynamics can create more upsets, but the favorite still performs strongly.
📊 Typical U.S. turf racing averages (compiled from multi-year Equibase & DRF summaries):
Win: ~33–34%
Place (1st or 2nd): ~55–57%
Show (1st, 2nd, or 3rd): ~71–73%
That means favorites on turf finish in the top two a little more than half the time, slightly less than the overall racing average (≈58–60%).
9 August 2025; Cnl; The Arlington Million G1 on Firm Turf.
With all due respect, Mystik Dan didn't deserve $3.7-1 odds. He's done nothing on Turf and for a $4.5 MM lifetime winner, looks washed at Grade 1 level. An emotionless gambler needs to look for these angles, over bet name recognition horses. I think Integration is a good horse, a horse for the course, but he's not Secretariat! Those odds were too short at $0.6-1.
I said I didn't think Vesting (Ire) scratch meant anything to the pace, and it didn't. I liked Cairo but he was so wet in his shoulders I was not shocked how he flattened. Time Song and Runaway Storm are still running and I rightly tossed them. That left Fort Washington and Grand Sonata, both of whom I thought were overlooked and in great form.
Keep handicapping, keep looking for the patterns that repeat over and over and over. As your handicapping improves, your bet construction will improve.
A simple bet construction I offered up prerace paid $88 on an $18 bet. I had the superfecta in my handicap as well, but that's a drug I avoid these days!
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I handicap (mostly) older horses, (mostly) running over routes of grass and I build exactas (almost always) from the information. I believe in the following core principles: Last speed is better than early (mostly), Older Horses give you more data and more predictability (mostly), Class matters (almost always), bet against favorites (60% of the time they lose) (almost always), build a base handicap that isn't your bet but is the best horses with best chance to win (everytime), build and adjust odds so you can compare to fair odds table (always), have fun, don't take yourself too seriously, and stay humble (forever).
Now that I bared my soul to you, let me say I hate that they call these races Arlington anything. Arlington, to me, the most beautiful track, with an incredible turf course, that truly attracted top European talent, was destroyed by greed and the poor leadership within the track ownership community. Don't insult my intelligence with this BS. While I'm happy they actually have a purse of $1.0 MM still, remember in 1981 dollars when this race started, that $1.0 MM is now worth $3.54 MM. The race hasn't progressed and that's why, along with other reasons, it's a poor excuse of a G1. That's The Turk's two cents, I generally don't get into such weighty subjects, but there you go.
My son and I made many trips to Arlington over the last decade. Those are memories I will always cherish. I've told my backstory and my connection to the Arlington fire of 1985 before and you can find it in this link. This track closure hurt because it was done because of terrible state leadership and the pursuit of slot revenue, terrible track ownership and apathy. When you lose the good things in life they seldom come back.
Anyways, lets get back to the handicapping. I've been experimenting with AI lately. While very rudimentary, I upload the PDF of the Past Performance to ChatGPT and build charts of data I like to see and compile generally by hand (Tomlinsons, Beyers, Early and Late Timeform, Class by number of Stakes Wins). It speeds things up for me. Next I will figure out how to automate to make the process quicker and repeatable. I'd love to incorporate more API data into what I do but I won't pay the crazy prices for DataStream access the monopolies over this sport demand. If anyone has an idea and wants to collaborate, let me know.
8 June 2025; SAR; The Manhattan G1; 1 1/8 Miles Good Turf
19 July 2025; Mth; The United Nations G2; 1 3/8 Miles on firm Turf
17 May 2025; Pim; The Dinner Party G3; 1 1/8 miles on Good Turf.
17 June 2025; Ascot (GB); The Queen Anne Stakes G1; 1 Mile on "Good to Firm" turf.
What to do with all of this? I like Integration a lot here: 9 of 14 in Turf Exactas, 4 of 4 in Colonial Exactas. Training very sharply over turf at Saratoga including a bullet :46 4/5ths at 4f with 51 others that day. Feels right with a 5 YO son of Quality Road running well in Virginia. Mr. Evans smiles.
I'm going to bet that he finishes no better than Place. Fort Washington, Cairo and Grand Sonata OVER Fort Washington, Cairo,Grand Sonata and Integration, a $2 exacta for $18.
Sometimes the best bet is the one you don't make. Vesting, who I didn't think could possibly win, just scratched. a seven horse race now, and Vesting leaving doesn't change the pace consideration for me (poor early speed, mid late).
If anything I'm less inclined to bet $18. Try Fort Washington, Cairo and Grand Sonata OVER Integration, a $2 Bet for $6. Mid value/low risk.
Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, where I specialize in analyzing and handicapping Turf Races, generally over routes of grass, contested by 4 Year Old's and Up, and building exacta bets from it. I've been a handicapper since the summer I spent in Saratoga Springs in 1986. People who visit Saratoga Springs are often surprised to see a US Navy base on the outskirts of town. When I was there the Military base didn't exist, but the reason for the base still does, the Nuclear Power Plant in Ballston Spa, NY where I learned to operate nuclear reactors and steam plants prior to spending 6 years on a submarine. I loved my time as a young man living in Saratoga. I lived on Jumel Street, a short walk to the track. I had a Skidmore girlfriend. Life seemed perfect and I wish I could have put that time in a bottle, but life doesn't work like that. Anyways, today's Ballston Spa Grade 2 race make me think of those times.
The weather should be dry, I assume the turf Firm, but check this link for Scratches and Changes and Turf conditions. Keep your eye on that horse in my thumbnail, Be Your Best (Ire) scratching and defecting to Colonial's bogus "Arlington Million Day" and Freedom Speaks entered 7 Aug in SAR.
Just a bit of video as I don't think you need to overthink this race too much.
26 May 2025; SA The Gamely G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf
14 June 2025; Mth; The Eatontown Stakes G3; 1 1/16 Miles on Good Turf. Whiskey Decision, Maggie Go, Ozara.
8 August 2025; SAR; The Ballston Spa G2; 1 1/16 miles
Things get interesting if the presumed chalk, Be Your Best (Ire) scratches, and JUST as I'm typing the scratches for Be Your Best and Freedom Speaks comes in.
I truly am keeping it simple. I like the true late turn of foot of Whiskey Decision. 2 OVER 3-6-7, a $2 exacta for $6.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog. The Turk has his methods, and they work for me. One of those methods I employ is to not allow outside bias into my handicapping. Years ago I had a subscription to Bloodhorse, a wonderful magazine, and I would read about the horses, the trainers and the connections, and biases would form. I'm a sucker for a good story, who isn't? I'm also a degenerate gambler and there is no place in gambling for biases because the horse is named in memory of someone. I'm not a robot, I love a good human interest story, just after I handicap and place my bets. Occasionally that works against me as I guess I was one of the few people who didn't realize Mindframe was going to be scratched. Generally I would see on my Past Performances "Also Entered" with a date and then I know its a chance, but this is a rare situation where two horses, trained by the same trainer, primarily owned by the same people, entered the same race planning to scratch one or the other. I don't think it's good for horse racing for best not to face best, but whatever.
The scratch changes nothing for me really and in fact makes my strategy easier. Only one beast, Fierceness, needs to finish no better than Place, preferably no better than Show, and the exacta ticket gets saucy.
7-2-3 OVER 7-2-3-5-9, a $2 exacta for $24 dollars. It's pricier than I like or may do, but the handle will justify it. Here's hoping Fierceness drops to Show.
Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, where I generally handicap turf races and construct exacta bets. While I do like Turf Racing, especially older horses over a route of grass, I don't ignore the dirt, especially this current crop of older dirt runners that is deep and very talented. I still generally avoid 2-3 YOs on dirt because I just find I'm not that good at that, but a field like today's Whitney at Saratoga, who can't be excited?
I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan as always for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today. You can find my work at my new Facebook Page as well as a new Twitter/X handle, or just come to my blog. Thank you.
Let's just dive right in. I'm only highlighting two videos today, Mindframe's Stephen Foster Handicap win and Fierceness at The Alysheba. I could have kept going but something like the Met Mile, run in slop, just isn't that relevant.
28 June 2025; Stephen Foster Handicap G1 at CD: 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt
2 May 2025; The Alysheba Stakes G2 at CD: 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt (Track Record for Fierceness)
I generally don't get that hung up on stats such as post time favorites who win, but as this shows below, two turn dirt races at Saratoga are kinder to chalk than the moniker of "graveyards of favorites" would have you believe. There is also difficult odds with deep closers .
I define deep closers as I'm handicapping by subtracting Timeform US Pace Late from Early. Anything greater than 50 points and I consider that a deep closer. For example today, Sierra Leone has Early of 62, a Late of 132, a +70 differential. You can see it in the running lines. Because of the placement of the gate right before the first turn, Sierra Leone will fall further back tactically and will need a pace collapse to rally against. My identified deep closers also includes Disarm and Post Time.
Outside posts, like most tracks, will have lower odds. Quality horses defy those odds. For no particular reason, I give you 2008's Kentucky Derby and Big Brown (rest in peace Eight Belles).
Some facts to nibble on regarding Saratoga (with sources linked below):
Among all two‑turn dirt races at Saratoga, the completion‐of‐the‐distance (post time favorites) win rate is around 42.8%. (1)
In those races, the majority of winners tend to be either early speed horses (pacesetters) or trackers/stalkers, while true deep closers have notably less success, especially on the main track—closing types rarely prevail unless the pace collapses. (2)
Wire‑to‑wire/front‑runner winners likely account for roughly 30–40% of wins at this distance, depending on pace.
Closers probably win in the low‑teens percentage, especially on main‑track routes.
Stalkers/pressers dominate many of the remaining races. (2) (3)
The starting gate for 9‑furlong dirt races at Saratoga is positioned just before the first turn, which gives inside posts (1–4) a meaningful advantage if the horse has early speed, as they can secure a favorable position before the turn. (4)
Historically, the inside four posts have shown a slight edge in win percentage in Saratoga two‑turn dirt races (i.e. at the 9 furlong distance). (5)
Races from posts 8 and wider have been statistically disadvantaged: in one analyzed sample, horses drawn from post positions 8 and outward combined to be 1‑for‑31 in victories, roughly ~3% win rate from those wide posts. (5)
That leaves middle posts (5–7) winning a substantial share of races, sometimes outperforming expectations or at least compensating for favoritism bias. (5)
If drawn post 1–3 in a 9‑furlong dirt route at Saratoga: your horse has historically enjoyed a ~50–55% chance of being the winner.
Drawing post 4–6 still offers a solid ~10–12% win rate, reflective of middle-post performance.
Posts 7 onward yield drastically lower success rates—typically <5% per post—mainly due to early turn dynamics and shorter run to the first bend. (6)
The weather should be dry. You'll find Track Condition and Scratches and Changes here.
Fair Odds: The Whitney Grade 1 at Saratoga.
A race like today's Whitney for me is about establishing who should win, how the public views them (via the flawed morning line, my fair odds chart and the tote board), and what sort of contrarian view I can take in my exacta bet construction. I say in today's race, but this is a process I follow for every race, with the only difference on a big handle day like today will be, I may go a bit deeper as the reward will be greater with the bigger handle.
While I want contrarian, and the odds still say somewhere between 60-67% of favorites lose, it's hard not to like either Fierceness of Mindframe here. Early speed, Late speed, tactical speed, Pletcher brings two beasts into the gate.
From a contrarian point of view, White Abarrio and Highland Falls are Grade 1 winners over this track and can easily be overlooked.
White Abarrio at 6 YO now won this race as a 4 YO. He's been training at Saratoga steady since late June after running in the slop of the Met Mile. A $1.7 MM 2025 winner can't just be ignorned. Highland Falls, true value at 8-1 or so, took the classic distance Gold Cup at Saratoga last September. Prat jumped off, but Cox brings the lightly races 5 YO son of Curlin in off a heavy favorite 1 mile win.
I'm going to take a $2 Flyer and put Highland Falls/White Abarrio OVER Sierra Leone, Fierceness and Mindframe, a $2 exacta for $12.
As always, have fun with it and don't be afraid to lose. As your handicapping improves, trust your own instincts over the bias of the media articles or track commentators, or bald, third person talking handicappers like The Turk. Look for value over betting favorites.
