The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, where I specialize in turf race handicapping and exacta bet constructions. Yesterday we handicapped the John Henry Turf Championship G2 at Santa Anita, and I discussed, but did not handicap, The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1 at Aqueduct (no, I won't pretend that it's Belmont).
Breeders' Cup is 33 days from now, 5 weeks from last Friday. After next weekend, and with very few exceptions after that, all the preps for Breeders' Cup will be done and I will turn my attention to handicapping, beginning with as much video as I can lay my hands on for the last 2-3 races for each horse I'm focused on. I'm not really a Triple Crown fella, I like data, and these turf race contestants at the Breeders' Cup come with loads of data and video. Heaven for a handicapping nerd such as I.
The John Henry was no great surprise. My base handicap had Gold Phoenix as an A+ and odds on favorite while I had Stay Hot as Place horse, an A rating and second best odds. They both went off at $1.50- 1 odds with Stay Hot considered the incremental chalk. My bet construction was singled on Mondego ($6.20-1) finally figuring it out and using his incredible turn of foot tactically to win a race. It didn't happen and may never happen.
27 September 2025; John Henry Turf Championship G2; DMR; 1 1/4 Miles on firm turf.
Race Chart:
Horse Name
PP
1/4
1/2
3/4
1M
STR
FIN
Gold Phoenix (IRE)
7
7
7
7
61
31
11 ¼
Stay Hot
6
5hd
62
6½
7
7
2nk
Spycatcher
3
22
21 ½
21 ½
21
1½
31
Mondego (GB)
5
61 ½
5½
52
5½
4hd
41 ¾
Balladeer
2
12 ½
14
14 ½
12
2hd
51 ¼
Dicey Mo Chara (GB)
4
42
3½
31 ½
4½
6½
6¾
Rastaman Vibe
1
31
42
41 ½
3hd
5hd
7
Race Chart Visualization:
Joe Hirsch also went as expected. Rebel's Romance (Ire) is a beast, going off at $0.64-1 with Redistricting getting longest odds you can expect him to get, $5.31 -1.
27 September 2025; Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1; 1 1/4 Miles on Firm Turf.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in exactly the kind of race I'm handicapping today, the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Championship at Santa Anita, competed by mostly hard knocking veterans of the scene. This is the Turk's favorite time of the year as a horse player, getting ready for final prep races for Breeders' Cup over the next two weekends and then, what turns into a video review of the year in horse racing, my prep for Breeders' Cup, which will be extensive this year, as I'm finally able to have a bit of work-life balance again and feel calm enough to dedicate the time I use to for that homework assignment.
I looked at the marathon distance Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1 run at Belmont at Big A (Temu Belmont), and while the purse was bigger, the class of horse was greater (magnificent Redistricting, $14M Rebel's Romance and Far Bridge), I'm going to just enjoy that one from a fans perspective as the field is a bit small.
Let's get right into it!
2 Wins.
23 Starts.
The number of winners at the distance and the combined starts at the distance. The field is a mixed bag with the real class and proven graded stakes competitors Stay Hot and Gold Phoenix (Ire).
30 August 2025; The Del Mar Handicap G2; 1 3/8 Miles on firm turf. Gold Phoenix won his fourth straight and The Turk blogged it here.
The two prime win candidates will be challenged by some unheralded horses that are trying to break into contender territory from mediocre.
Rastaman Vibe: cutting back 1f off his very game OC$50K win at Del Mar 20 days ago. Trainer Knapp claimed him on that day and entered the 4 YO here. 13 SA Turf Starts, no exacta finishes. Woof.
Mondego (GB): Why do we watch video? Watch the Del Mar Handicap above and watch Mondego (GB) at the top of the stretch go wide outside and watch his closing kicks: powerful, long strides. Less traffic, slightly less early speed pressure, you can't watch him and not think he's very dangerous, especially Conditioner McCarthy and Kimura, Up, get him into the right place.
Exacta History: Life, Turf, Distance, Track
Tomlinson Analysis
Exacta Comparison/Class
Timeform Early and Late US Pace
What do we do with all of this?
Santa Anita Race 6: The John Henry Turf Championshi>p G2; 1 1/4 Miles on Firm Turf
I'm not sure I'm an investor in this one, but if I do, I'm looking for pure value: $2 Exacta, 5 OVER 1-6-7 for $6 Bucks.
Have fun friends, Turk Out!
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I (usually) handicap Turf Racing and build Exacta Bets. When you start to get to this time of the year, the number of good Graded Stake Turf races starts to dwindle. The next few weekends, but especially Saturday September 27 and Saturday October 4 are really the last few big prep weekends prior to Breeders' Cup. When I started thinking about what I wanted to blog this weekend, I had the Ginger Punch here at GP, a few races at Aqueduct and JRA, but nothing excited me too much. We do, however, have a Breeders' Cup win and You're in dirt sprint at Gulfstream, The Princess Rooney Grade 3. As I was handicapping and watching video, I forgot how fast these sprints are run at, and look no further than the opening 1/4 mile in The Sheer Drama below at :21.7 Anyways, this is a horse racing blog, I'm a Turf, Dirt and Synth handicapper, so let's get it on!
16 August 2025; GP; The Sheer Drama $75K; 7f on fast dirt
22 June 2025; GP; The Musical Romance $75K; 6 1/2 F on good dirt.
Haulin Ice and Vincey Girl, wow. Contrasting styles, complimentary combatants.
9 August 2025; Cnl; The Tyson Gilpin $103K; 7f on fast dirt
Reputation, at, 3 YO, is $450,000 Bolt 'd Oro filly who has won 3 of 4 races in 2025, including the Tyson Gilpin by 6 lengths. Deeper waters today.
22 August 2025; CT; The Pink Ribbon $250K; 7f Fast Dirt.
Another beast, Mystic Lake. only four horses, slow fractions, glorified workout.
21 June 2025; CD; The Chicago Handicap G2; 7f on Fast Dirt
Claret Beret with a long sustained drive up the straight, including a very game final 1/16, just beaten as 10-1. yes, this race is missing Vahva.
What to do with this all?
Mystic Lake was entered at PRX for today as well. I find it incredibly frustrating that they don't scratch sooner when its known the horse will be thousands of miles away at a different track on the same day. Whatever!
I'm just looking for value here and Ultimate Authority has an incredible closing kick. I'm looking for her to stay close long enough to unleash it. It will be a tall order as Claret Beret and Haulin Ice can sustain over 7f, while tactical Vincey Girl and Reputation will be ether as well.
3 OVER 1-2-5-8, a $2 exacta for $8.
The tracks should be Fast. You can find scratches, changes and track condition here.
This is a special post for The Turk: The 17th Anniversary of the Blog's Start, and today, the 750th post on the blog. The Turk isn't anything if he isn't determined, and I was determined to create a blog that few would read and enjoy. Yes, I said that. It's a handicappers blog in the fading sunset of horse racing. When this blog started I was visiting tracks like Suffolk Downs, Hollywood, and Arlington. All gone. I use to meet other handicappers from time to time, but now, even at the track, the people who like to decode the mysteries of the Past Performance are a dwindling breed.
When this blog started I joined an Alliance of other bloggers, almost all much better writers than I, but more fascinating, almost every one of them had a different point of view, different approaches to covering this great past time. These were long form, nuanced and insightful pieces of writing, some of them far exceeding the journalistic standards of a standard DRF article.
With Twitter, it all came down, and suddenly. Gone were the days of long form prose, in was 140 characters. Snippets, shallow, but a mirror of the attention span of most of America by this time. For me, I just kept writing. My blog is a nerd's blog where I handicap and try to assemble bets. I don't break news stories, I have no compelling connections to the sport, and worst of all, I'm a lousy networker. Any positive friendly connections I did have went out the window when I broke my own golden rule on Facebook and talked politics during the 2016 election cycle. Most of my horse racing connections leaned left, I leaned right, and suddenly I was cut off from aggregators, left to wither in the vacuum. My own fault.
I've learned, I don't talk politics on my blog, and I don't talk politics on my social media feeds either. Readership is up the more I post and the more effort I put into it. Why do I still write? Because I enjoy it, it's that simple. I think I have something to offer in terms of my handicapping, and my bet construction ain't too shabby either. I focus on Turf Racing, not the most popular form of racing in the United States, but it's what I enjoy. I could get a few more views if I cared about the Road to the Roses and the Triple Crown hunt, but I just don't care enough to do that. My favorite horses aren't the regally bred ones that win several races as a three year old and go off to stud. Mine are 4 years and older, sometimes gelded, dirt racing failures or just more bred for turf, who knock around from track to track and come back the following year to do it all over again. That's what I love, journeymen turf runners who can still surprise with that late turn of foot.
Anyways, as Turk starts to contemplate retirement I've reinvested myself in this blog. I'm making use of AI tools to help me build tables and charts. I'm posting more frequently. I've created specific socials just for the blog and I'm doing all the little things to grow the blog organically. I use to dream about getting aggregated to one of the big horse racing websites, but that's not the dream anymore. Now the dream is to nail the handicap, nail the bet, and if someone reads it, great, otherwise wash rinse and repeat. I was I was determined, and stubborn. This blog is still in it's infancy, I have at least 17 years more in me, God willing.
I'd be remiss to not thank a few people: My dear Aunt Rose who gave me my love of horse racing. She was such a unique and colorful character, I miss her dearly. Gene Kershner, who answered a lot of questions for me when I was considering starting this blog and who helped me get into the Bloggers Alliance. Finally, The Happy Handicapper, Bob Summers, who inspired me with his writing for the Buffalo News for so many years.
I was 42 years old when I started this Blog. I've been handicapping since 1986, 39 years. When I started, my son, The Little Turk, was my sidekick. He went to so many Grade 1 races before the age of ten it was silly. He's a chiropractor now, engaged to be married. He still likes getting to the track with his pops from time to time, but the blog is all me now.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction.
Today I almost added to my resume: Magician. How to turn a big pile of money into a smaller pile of money! Luckily I didn't, but it's a good reminder to myself not to over bet. I've been playing Kentucky Downs for the past several weeks and I got a but caught up with high risk/high reward exactas. When you watch the closing kick of Notable Speech (GB) below in yesterday's Woodbine Mile you will realize that he was not just chalk, but heavy chalk, odds on favorite, nearly unbeatable in this field, barring a bad trip. The brilliant Buick, up, delivered on a classic trip just off the lead before taking it wide and down the straight after the final of two tight turns on the inner turf.
The handicap was fine. I handed out an A+ on Notable Speech (GB), a rare rating for me to give. I had the order of finish well enough to get a Trifecta, not a chance on the Superfecta with Naptown, 98-1 Naptown, just nipping One Stripe (SAf). Speaking of the South African, use the video to find the next bet sneaky potentials. He closed well from back of the pack in his first NA start.
The right bet was to single Notable Speech (GB) and put some value in the Place spot. It's a lesson I've learned many times, and forgotten just as often. As much as I want to beat chalk (remember they lose ~60% of the time), there is chalk and then there is chalk, and Notable Speech is the later.
13 September 2025: The Woodbine Mile G1; 1 Mile on firm inner turf.
Welcome Friends To The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Racing Handicaps and Exacta Bet Construction. Everyone needs a POV and that's mine.
Woodbine is about 70 miles from my house, just across the Canadian border and up the QEW. It's one of my favorite tracks and I especially love days like today's Woodbine Mile Day, a Win and You're In Breeders' Cup event and a premier Grade 1. Today's is a bit unusual as they are racing on the inner turf as the E.P. Taylor Turf course gets some work done on it. The race starts just after the final of two turns (also different) so the horses have much of the straight to angle for first turn positioning. I'm looking at Closers still to do well, but decent tactical speed to not be too far back coming into and out of the tight turns.
Let's take a look at some video:
2 August 2025; WO; The Niagara Stakes $120K; 1 1/4 Miles on Firm Turf, Outer.
17 August 2025; Deauville (Fr); Prix Jacques Le Marois G1; 1 Mile on "Good to Soft" Turf
As we start to prep for Breeders' Cup, an explanations of Turf Classifications from Europe is in order:
Firm (Fm): The hardest ground type, usually seen in summer when there is little to no rain.
Good to Firm (GF): Slightly softer than Firm, thanks to light rain or watering.
Good (Gd): Considered the most balanced and fair ground condition, suitable for most horses.
Good to Soft (GS): Softer ground with more moisture, common in early spring or late autumn.
Soft (Sft): Wet ground that significantly slows horses, requiring stamina.
Heavy (Hy): The wettest, toughest ground where only the most resilient horses perform well.
Before we explain all of them in depth, note that it’s possible to have two types of ground in one description.
For example, Good to Soft, Soft in places. This means that the track is mainly Good to Soft, but there are places of Soft ground along the way.
The most important factor to remember is the more it rains the softer the ground.
Firm (Fm) Ground
If we had no rain, the ground would be classed Firm. This isn’t as common as it once was because the racecourses now water their course to keep the ground safe. Basically, take the impact out of the ground so that less injuries occur. You will normally get this type of ground in the summer months. Firm ground means horses can run faster, and that’s usually when track records are set.
Good to Firm (GF)
After Firm ground, we have Good to Firm. This is when we’ve had enough rain (or watering) to take most of the firmness out of the ground but it’s still on the fast side. This is a lot more common than Firm ground because racecourses water the ground, especially if there is no rain forecast.
From a betting angle, understanding the meaning of Good to Firm can highlight value. Some horses bounce off this surface and run personal bests, while others find it too quick. Looking at a horse’s past records on GF going can often reveal profitable patterns overlooked by casual punters.
Good (Gd)
This is when we’ve had enough rain to take all of the firmness out of the ground. It’s fair to say that this is the best type of ground, and usually the type of ground that suits most horses. It’s easy to run on for horses and produces big fields because it’s the fairest type of ground. Of course, you may have horses who like really Soft ground. However, they could still race on Good ground.
In comparison to Firm ground where they would have to withdraw. Good ground is the most common type of ground at all racecourses – it’s just the perfect ground to race on.
Good to Soft (GS)
Next up is Good to Soft Ground. This is simply Good ground that is holding more water. It’s as simple as that.
We usually get this type of ground at the start and towards the end of the jumps and flat seasons (out-of-season ground usually). It would suit the majority of horses. The only horses that struggle with this are those that run better on firm ground.
Soft (Sft)
This is when we’ve had rain and it’s softened the ground, but the track can take more. Soft ground is very common in the jumps season, when we get more wet weather and it takes longer to dry out.
Horses will find this ground a lot harder to run on than Good ground, and the races will be much slower because of that. There are however, horses that excel on soft ground, and it would suit them better than racing on Good ground.
Heavy (Hy)
Heavy ground is the toughest test a horse can face – deep, energy-sapping conditions demand extreme stamina and endurance. Races on Heavy ground are often significantly slower, favoring strong-staying horses over speed-focused runners.
4 January 2025; Kenilworth (SAf); King's Plate G1 (One Stripe); 1 Mile on Yielding Turf
2 August 2025; SAR; The Fourstar Dave G1; 1 Mile on Inner Firm Turf
16 August 2025; WO; The King Edward G2; 1 Mile on Outer Firm Turf
Timeform Early/Late US PACE:
Exacta History:
Tomlinson Comparison
Dollars Per Start/Class Evaluation
So what to do with all of this?
13 September 2025; The Woodbine Mile G1; 1 Mile Firm (?) Inner Turf
It's hard not to like Notable Speech (GB), with Appleby Conditioning and Buick, Up. 9 straight Grade 1 attempts, including a Show Finish as the Chalk in last year's Breeders' Cup Mile. I like that he's here in North America and getting a tune up start.
Gas Me Up with Prat Up for Conditioner Attard comes in off a win in the tune-up for this race, the Grade 2 King Edward. That was run on the outer turf at one turn which adds a layer of complication to the analysis. His last start on the inner turf was in June and he was terrible as the chalk.
My four potential exacta candidates have little separation amongst them. I do like Win for the Money as potentially a winner here. Local jock Husbands is up for local trainer M. Casse. Only 1 win in 5 starts at the distance, 5 of 12 in turf exactas, 1 win at WO but also no exacta finishes in 3 tries in 2025. Last two efforts at Saratoga on the inner turf were sneaky good, tow show finishes against quality. Last year's winner looking for repeat.
One Stripe (SAf) is interesting for Trainer Motion with J. Velazquez, up. I have a general bias against Grade 1 SAf horses until they do something in NA. Motion however is good at this: 29% on 21 tries with 1stNA, 20% on 35 tries 1st Time Training, and he's 22% in 58 tries off a long layoff, in this case 16 March 2025. I'll cover Place but not the win. I really think he's out of exacta but dangerous.
My Boy Prince for Casse has big early speed but I'm not a fan of it here. Last time out in Fourstar Dave on inner turf he broke from 2 post and faded badly. No wins in 5 tries at distance, only 2 lifetime turf wins. 3 of 4 in the exactas at WO. Perhaps that early speed gives him edge to hold on with. Also dangerous.
Wyoming Bill with Dettori up goes back to blinkers-on. No wins in 2 tries at the distance and only 1 win in 5 turf starts. Does have a win against OC$50k crowd on this inner turf at 1 mile in June. Impressive in the King Edward.
Leaning two ways on the bet:
$2 Exacta 2-9 OVER 2-9-8-3-5-6 for $20
OR
$2 Exacta 2-9-8 OVER 2-9-8-3-5-6 for $30
I'm generally looking to beat the chalk but Notable Speech is clearly the class here and it's his race to lose.
Welcome friends To The Turk Blog. I focus on Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction. While I generally eschew social media. I noticed this morning quite a bit of distain for the exacta pools around the horse racing fandom. If you pay attention to my base handicap, ignore the bet construction, you'll find I pick winners and build a fair odds table that is much more accurate than a Morning Line and does a fair good job against the Tote Board. I use to bet Superfectas. I like to go horizontal and bet Pick X on cards when I'm not blogging as it takes a lot of typing time for that effort. My point is, use the base handicap and make whatever bet you'd like. I focus on Exactas. I get it, I've been burned too. I focus mostly on Stakes Races for the blog, big purse money too, races I expect a lot of handle on. That insulates me pretty good, but I get it. Whatever you do, have fun, otherwise why do it. I think the proliferation of sports gambling is what will kill this sport. It takes skill to handicap. The powers that be horde a lot of information. Betting the major sports is just easier. I'm almost 60, I hope to still be blogging and enjoying races until I'm dead, God willing, but will there be a sport for our grandkids to enjoy? Doubtful unless it reinvents the way it markets itself. That's the type of meaty question I let the real turf writers opine about, I'm just a degenerate gambler with a love of the horses that is 50 years old now.
Let's get after it!
6 August 2025; Kentucky Downs; Turf Cup G2; 1 1/2 Miles on Turf
3 August 2025; Ellis Park; KD Preview Turf Cup $300K; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf
9 August 2025; Colonial Downs; The Arlington Million G1; 1 1/4 Mile Firm Turf
9 August 2025; Saratoga; The Sword Dancer G1; 1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf- El Rezeen from the back with Davis, Up; gets Irad Ortiz Jr. today.
19 July 2025; Monmouth Park; The United Nations G2; 1 3/8 miles firm turf. (In Spanish- Look for 1 horse Tawny Port and 4 Horse, Place, Grand Sonata and 5 horse, Vote No)
19 April 2025; Keeneland; The Elkhorn G2; 1 1/2 Miles on Turf
Visualization of Timeform Early to Late; takeaway, lots of late movers as you'd expect.
Tomlinson Review for Turf and Distance; Takeaway, no surprises where the Class leaders rank.
And a look at the Exacta Finishes over Lifetime, Turf, Distance and Kentucky Downs;
What to make of all of this? I like the grizzled Vets in this race. Quite frankly I like my Base Handicap quite a bit, enough to box up a Superfecta if I was so inclined.
If I'm looking for value it's El Rezeen who I like more than most (foolish or not). To win? I'd be hard pressed top say that, but to spice up the Place spot.
